'中英文全文實錄！馬雲VS馬斯克，你站誰？'

昨天上午開幕的2019世界人工智能大會上，聯合國數字合作高級別小組聯合主席馬雲和特斯拉公司聯合創始人兼首席執行官埃隆•馬斯克，上演高端對話。

雙方“華山論劍”，到底碰撞出了多少思維的火花？以下為“雙馬對話”全文實錄。

全文共14880字，閱讀大約需要24分鐘

先看個視頻現場版本的——

中文版全文實錄——

主持人：歡迎兩位，非常高興你們出席今天的會議，大家都很期待這次對話。大屏幕上會打一些關鍵詞，請你們直接點一下你們感興趣的關鍵詞進行對話。

關鍵詞：AI

馬斯克：說說AI吧。在中文裡AI是不是指的是“愛”這個意思？

Elon: Actually, I'm told that, does AI mean love? Like is that a name?

馬雲：我不喜歡AI被稱為人工智能，我稱它為阿里巴巴智能。

Jack: Yeah, I hate the word AI called "artificial intelligence". I call it Alibaba Intelligence!

馬斯克：我也這麼感覺。一般大家都會低估人工智能的能力，他們覺得可能就像是聰明的人而已。實際上，人工智能比這個厲害得多，可能比最聰明的人還要聰明。

我看到AI研究人員犯的最大錯誤就是假定他們很聰明，實際上和AI相比不見得如此，他們覺得機器不會比人聰明，實際上機器很有可能比人聰明得多。面對這個狀況我們應該做什麼呢？我也不知道，我也不確定，我希望AI會是好東西。

有一句老話，如果打不過他們就和他們組成團隊吧。我所開發的公司就是這樣，目的就是讓我們加入到AI戰隊裡面。現在我們已經和手機、電腦連在一塊了，我們已經成為帶有機器特徵的人了，機器在你生命相當於你生命的延伸，你離開了手機像少了一個手臂。

與人的思維速度相比，現在的人工智能太慢了。假定一個計算機多幾個服務點的計算能力，每個毫秒在計算機來說是極大進步，對於我們來說這不算什麼。理解人類的自然語言對於計算機來說非常短，像鯨魚在發的聲音，每秒鐘最多一百個字節左右的信息對於電腦來說太短太慢了。計算機可以超過你幾十萬倍數字通量的方式進行對話，計算機看人一定會覺得特別無聊，彷彿看著人就覺得無聊的人類。這是我想說的人和計算機的差別。

Elon: Yeah, that might end up being true. You never know. I think, generally, people underestimate the capability of AI. They sort of think that it's a smart human. But it's really much, much more than that. It will be much smarter than the smartest human. It will be like, can a chimpanzee really understand humans? Not really, you know. We just seem like strange aliens. They mostly just care about other chimpanzees. This will be how it is, more or less, in a relative -- in fact, if the difference is only that small, that would be amazing. Probably it's much, much greater.

The biggest mistake that I see artificial intelligence researchers making is assuming that they're intelligent. They're not, compared to AI. So like, a lot of them cannot imagine something smarter than themselves, but AI will be vastly smarter. Vastly. So what do you do with a situation like that? I'm not sure, you know. But I hope they're nice. I mean I have, obviously, some...

I think, in a situation where, if you know the old saying "If you can't beat em', join em'", you know that's what Neurolink is about. Can we go along for the ride with AI? I mean, I really think that there should be other companies like Neurolink essentially to create a high bandwidth interface to the brain. Right now we are already a cyborg, people don't realize we are already a cyborg because we are so well integrated with our phones and our computers. The phone is almost like an extension of yourself. If you forget your phone, it's like a missing limb.

But the bandwidth, the communication bandwidth of the phone is very low, especially input. So, in fact, input bandwidth to your computer has actually gone down because of typing with two thumbs as opposed to ten fingers is a bit reduction in bandwidth. Input bandwidth has gone up because of video and imagery.

So input bandwidth is many orders of magnitude greater than output bandwidth, but at a certain point, if... assuming that benign scenario with AI, we will just be too slow, you know. It's like if, to something, let's say a computer that has like an exoflop of, many exoflops of computer capability, a millisecond is an eternity and to us it's nothing. So, you know, I always think like human speech, to a computer, will sound like very slow, tonal wheezing. It's kind of like whale sounds. What's our bandwidth, like a few hundred bits per second, basically. Maybe a very kilobits per second if you're going to be generous. So, whereas a computer can easily communicate at a terabit level. So, the computer will just get impatient, if nothing else. It would be like talking to a tree, that's humans. Barely getting any information out of it, basically, with speech.

馬雲：我特別驚訝於你對於科技的願景。我不是搞高科技的人，我是講生活的，我覺得AI能夠給全世界，給社會打開一個新的篇章，讓大家更好的理解自己，而不是完全理解外部的世界。

今天要預測未來很難，特別難。99.9%的預測都是錯的，只有0.001%的預測是對的。為什麼對呢？那是運氣好，很多情況80%的數據是錯的。

對於人工智能，對於阿里巴巴的智能，我跟高興它們能夠更好的理解人類的本質。很多人擔心人工智能，他們需要對自己有更多的自信。今天很多問題沒有解決方案，但是未來會有，青年人會有解決方案。我很樂觀，我不覺得AI是一種威脅，我不認為人工智能是很恐怖的東西，因為人類很聰明。我覺得AI很好很有意思，我們會擁抱它。

Jack: Yeah, I'm almost amazed by what your vision of the technology. I'm not a tech guy, I think I'm all about life. I think AI is going to open a new chapter of the society of the world that people try to understand ourselves better, rather than the outside world.

And, it's so difficult to predict the future. 99.99% of the predictions that human beings have about the history about the future, all wrong.

I'm happy about the artificial intelligence, or the Alibaba intelligence, that's going to understand the inside of the human better. So, when people worry a lot about artificial intelligence, people should have more confidence in themselves, because I think, if a lot of solutions we don't have today, but there will be solutions tomorrow. We don't have solutions, but the young people will have solutions. So I'm quite optimistic, and I don't think artificial intelligence is a threat, I don't think AI is something terrible, but human beings are smart enough to learn that. And to me, Artificial Intelligence is just like, people worry a lot about this today are those people I call them, called... college smartness. People like us, street smart, we're never scared of that, we think it's a great fun and we want to change ourselves to embrace it.

馬斯克：告訴大家一個事實，現在電腦進步的速度是驚人的。比如玩電子遊戲，往前看40年50年，可能你會有兩個方塊的單機遊戲，但是現在可以很多人在一個遊戲平臺上一起打遊戲，進步巨大。越來越多的遊戲做得越來越真實。科技在未來仍然會有非常巨大的發展。

人類文明有7000年曆史，這個人類文明史從文明角度來看高低起伏非常厲害。我不是個天然的樂觀或者悲觀的人，但未來科技發展將會超越我們理解它的能力。我不知道這樣是好事還是壞事。

Elon: I dunno man, it's like famous last words. Let me tell you, AI is, I mean, if you look at the rate of advancement of computers is insane. A good example would be video games. If you go back 40 years ago, 50 years ago maybe, you have Pong. That was just rectangles and a square. Now you've got photo realistic, real-time simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously. If you assume any rate of improvement at all, the games will be indistinguishable from reality. You will not be able to tell the difference. Either that or civilization will end. Those are the two options. But even if the rate of technology improvement slowed down by a thousand, okay advance a thousand years, or 10,000 years, this is still very tiny.

Civilization has been around for, probably, you know arguably 7,000 years or something like that, if you count it from the first time there was any writing, any recorded symbols, besides cave paintings. That's a very tiny amount of time, considering the universe is 13.8 billion years old. I mean, if civilization lasted for only a million years, we would only increment the third decimal point after 13.8 billion years, if we lasted for a million years. So, that seems like a long time, given that we've only been around for 7 thousand years. It's been kind of a roller coaster on the civilization front. So, I mean I'm not trying to be, I'm a naturally optimistic person to be clear, I'm not saying you know, doom and gloom. I'm just saying, this is the apparent pattern, the rate of change of technology is incredibly fast. It is outpacing our ability to understand it. Is that good or bad, I don't know. I mean it seemed to me, some time ago, that you could sort of think of humanity as a biological bootloader for biological super-intelligence. If, for those who know what a bootloader is, a very tiny piece of code without which the computer cannot start. It's sort of like the minimal bit of code necessary for a computer to start. Like, you couldn't involve silicon circuits, they needed to be biology to get there.

關鍵詞：火星

馬雲：點一下火星的關鍵詞，聽說你要去火星？我對火星沒有興趣，我剛從火星迴來。我對地球上發生的一切更感興趣，為什麼大家對火星這麼好奇。

Jack: Good. Well let's talk about something fun, I admire, that you want to go on the Mars. Go to the Mars? Yeah, so, what will the life look like on Mars? Are you both moving? What do you think about that? Actually I'm not interested in Mars, I just came back from there so. I'm more interested on the Earth, the things what's going to happening here. So why are you so curious about the Mars?

馬斯克：對於火星，我們需要採取行動。我沒有考慮過外星人。外星人在哪裡，這是一個問題。為什麼沒有找到外星人，有些人找到外星人，說去過51區嗎？我說別開玩笑了，有外星人我一定知道。

我覺得我們需要更進一步瞭解宇宙的本質，以確保我們能夠進入到不同的行星生活。這並不是因為我覺得地球沒有希望了，但畢竟存在這種可能，即使我們盡了最大的努力，地球還是有可能會發生人類無法控制的事情，外部力量或者內部事物導致文明被毀滅或者我們受到足夠的威脅以至於我們只能搬到另外一個星球去生活。

換句話說，地球45億的生活當中，現在第一次有可能讓生命離開地球生活，之前是沒有可能的。但是這個機會窗口會有多久，長或者短都有可能。假定機會窗口不長，我們需要儘快抓住機會窗口。這是我的觀點。

Elon: Well, I think the thing about Mars is that, I think it's important for us to take the set of actions that are most likely to continue consciousness into the future. What increases the probability of consciousness, of continuing into the future. I think we should not take it for granted that consciousness will continue, because we have no encountered any aliens. Where are the aliens? This is the Fermi Paradox. This is one of the most important questions: How come we've not found any aliens? There's people out there that think we've found aliens. Trust me, I would know, we have not, okay? People ask me: Have you been to Area 51? Okay, please. SpaceX actually has Area 59, it's even better, eight better than 51.

So, among the set of actions we can take that are likely to increase the scope and scale of consciousness such that we are better able to understand the nature of the universe. One of those actions is to become a multi-planet species, or ensure that life is multi-planetary. Not because I think, it's not from the standpoint of just being an escape hatch or because I think that Earth is doomed, but there is a certain probability, that is irreducible, that something may happen to Earth, despite our best intentions, despite everything we try to do, that there's a probability at a certain point that some, either external force or some internal unforced error causes civilization to be destroyed. Or sufficiently impaired such that it can no longer extend to another planet.

It's hard to say, let me put it another way: this is the first time in the four and a half billion year history of Earth, that it's been possible to extend life beyond Earth. Before this it was not possible. How long will this window be open? It may be open for a long time, or it may be open for a short time. I think it would be wise to assume that it is open for a short time, and let us secure the future of consciousness such that the light of consciousness is not extinguished. And we should try to do this as quickly as possible. That's my view.

馬雲：抓住地球的未來，沒有那麼容易。但是未來的一百年我們要儘可能做好。我很欽佩你開發火星的勇氣，我身邊有很多人在盡力提升現有地球的發展。要把100萬人送到火星很好，但是我們要關心74億地球人的發展，讓地球更可持續發展，我不是火星的粉絲，就像爬到山頂往下再走一步就去火星了，但是回不來了。我感覺去火星就是回不來的感覺，別那麼做。

我也不喜歡爬喜馬拉雅山，有一天如果有電梯的話，我希望能夠坐上電梯到喜馬拉雅頂上看看。大家在地球花非常多的時間，不管人類文明多久，一百萬年，五十萬年，但是每個人在地球上最多一百年的生命，我們不可能把未來所有問題都解決，但是我們必須對未來負責。我們要很關注現在的生活怎麼能夠更好。如果通過AI、通過人工智能，人類能更好理解自己的話，我們就可以更好地提升世界。

過去的200年，人類希望能夠更好的理解其他人，但是我對AI感興趣的一點，因為AI可以讓你更好的理解自己，更好理解人類的本質。我聽說你要在地球內部往下挖，這個想法很好。我們需要對外部空間保持興趣，也需要在地球上努力工作提升我們的生活。這是我想要的。

Jack: It's so difficult to secure the future of the Earth but we can secure the future of the next 100 years. I'm not a person that, I admire your courage for exploring the Mars, but I admire a lot of people spend efforts on improving the Earth. It's great to send one million people to the Mars, but we have to care about the 7.4 billion people on the Earth. How can we make the world more sustainable? And I'm not that fond of the Mars because I think it's easy to go to the Mars when you go on the top of the hills or of the building, just one step you go to Mars. We will never be able to come back, so that's my view.

And, so... also, I hate to go to the Himalayas when you climb on it. I think something, when it is ready I will go there to look. But, I think people spending more time on the Earth think about, no matter how long the civilization of the human beings will be, like one million or two million of half million years, we only have 100 years. So, we cannot solve all the problems for future but we have to be responsible for the future, but we should care more about how we can enjoy better. My view is that by the AI, when human beings understand ourselves better then we can improve the world better.

Last 200 years, human beings tried to understand the outside world better, understand the other people better, but I think what I feel excited about AI is that AI is to understand people. The inside of the human beings, the Earth I heard you got to dig a tunnel deep in the Earth which is amazing. I think, anyhow, every time when I read the news about you are interested in the outside space, I look at you with great respect. We need a hero like you but we need more heroes like us working hard on the Earth, improving things every day. That's what I want.

馬斯克：我也是支持地球的。但有一天當人類成為多星球生存的生物時，人類社會將有可能實現超越地球的更大發展。從資源的角度說，這世界只需要使用大概最多1%的資源用來研發去實現多星球生活，並不需要太多投入。我覺得這是針對未來比較明智的一個投資。

比如用特斯拉新能源電動車，用電池、太陽能作為動力解決方案，可以部分解決能源的可持續發展問題。我很激動特斯拉能來到上海，特斯拉（中國）團隊做得非常棒，上海的超級工廠非常令人震撼。我很驚喜特斯拉在上海取得的巨大進步，全世界都看到了一個好的案例，一個創新企業在中國可以取得多好的進展，這是非常令人稱羨的，我向大家致敬，你們太棒了。之前我在其他地方沒有看到過這樣快速的發展，中國就是未來，未來是非常令人激動的。

中國的創業企業發展速度像火箭一般，他們已經進入軌道了。我很尊重這樣的創新型的“火箭企業”。

Elon: Sure, I mean to be clear, I'm very pro-Earth. When I say us becoming a multi-planet species, or making life multi-, extending life beyond Earth, expanding the scope of scale of consciousness, from a resource standpoint I'm talking about less than 1% of Earth's resources should be dedicated to making life multi-planetary or making consciousness multi-planetary. I think it should be, like, somewhere in between how much we spend on lipstick and how much we spend on healthcare. For the preservation of consciousness we should spend maybe slightly more than we spend on cosmetics. I'm pro-cosmetics, but you know, there's probably worth spending at least half a percent of Earth's GDP on extending life to be multi-planetary. Maybe 1%, I'd say, seems like a good use of resources. But, you have like more resources spent on Earth, so it's not like it's, you know, somehow gonna fundamentally impair Earth. If just 1% of Earth resources, on that order, should be enough to make like multi-planetary. It seems like a wise investment for the future.

Obviously I spend a lot of my time on sustainable energy with Tesla, with electric cars and solar batteries and that kind of thing, and I'm really excited to be here in Shanghai for the Shanghai gigafactory, which is, I think, the Tesla China team has done an amazing job, really mind-blowing. I'm just astounded by how quick the job is and how much progress has been made, and I think it's a good story for the world to see like look, look how much progress you can make in China. This is extremely impressive, my hat is off you know, you guys rock so. I've never seen so many people so fast in my life before. I've seen some crazy things so, I really think China's future looks very impressive and there's also some great progress on entrepreneurial rocket companies in China as well, and I believe two have made orbit.

It's very hard to make orbit, achieving orbit: I have great respect. This is very hard.

關鍵詞：就業

馬雲：再選一個話題，就業、生命選一個。

Jack: Pick up another topic?

馬斯克：可以。

Elon: Sure.

馬雲：就業吧。人工智能將為我們創造什麼新工作，或者這種改變已經開始了？對此你怎麼看？實際上人們所擔心每一個技術的革新，過去100年我們一直擔心新技術將會帶走就業機會，實際上我們創造了很多就業機會。

未來20-30年裡面，大家壽命會更長，生命科學技術可以讓我們活100年或者120年，甚至祖祖父還在努力地工作，但這不一定是好事。為什麼要有那麼多工作？我覺得一週工作3天，一天工作4小時很好了。

我們有電，電讓大家有更多的時間，晚上可以去唱唱歌，跳跳舞。有了人工智能之後，人們會有更多的時間去享受作為人的樂趣。我大概去過300多個不同的城市，我父親可能去過30個城市，我爺爺最多去過3個城市。我的孫輩可能去過3000個城市，可以坐特斯拉去，可以一直在路上，一直在旅行。我覺得我們不需要太多工作，今後我們需要的工作就是讓大家開心，讓大家快樂，讓大家體驗生活，享受人類的生活。

我不會太擔心工作。首先我們會有很多工作，第二點我們不需要很多的工作，第三很有意思的一點，農業時代大家平均壽命大概30或者35歲，工業時代有了技術革命之後，人們可以活到70歲，在人工智能時代，人們可能會活到100年，這是我的猜測。現在有一個問題，人們生活越來越好的時候，就不想生孩子了。我們會有很多工作但是沒有人想去做，我們需要人工智能和機器人來照顧老年人。你不一定會因此很開心，因為當你爺爺的爺爺說“我明天還要上班”，這實際上是一種災難。

我們沒有辦法預測未來，但是我們應該做好準備：我們將進入這樣的時代，每個人能活120歲，會有很多新的問題，這是我的看法。

Jack: Jobs. So what new jobs will be created because of AI, or has the change already started? What do you think? I think, why we need that many jobs? My view is that the jobs actually, every technological revolution people start to worry. The last 200 years we worried about new technology gonna take away all the jobs. Actually, we made a lot of jobs. Second, because of the industrial revolution, jobs created a lot of jobs.

What I think is the next 20-30 years, human beings will live much longer, the life science technology is gonna make people live probably 100 - 120 years. That may not be a good thing because you've got your grandfather's grandfather still working hard. But the challenge is, why should we have a lot of jobs? I think people should work three days a week, four hours a day.

When we have electricity, the power of electricity is that we made people more time, so you could go to the karaoke in the evening, you could go to the dancing party in the evening. So people, because of electricity, people have more time. I think, because of AI, people will have more time enjoying being human beings. In your life, in my life, I think I've visited probably 300 cities in my life. My father visited 30 cities, my grandfather visited only three cities, so my grandchildren probably will visit 3,000 cities. He's always on the Tesla. He's always on the roads, always traveling around. So I don't think we need a lot of jobs, at that time the jobs we need is make people happier, make people experience their lives, enjoy the human beings, so I don't worry about the jobs a lot.

First, we're gonna have enough jobs. Second, we don't need a lot of jobs. Third, there's a very interesting thing, because we will probably talk about life: in the agriculture period, the average age was like 30/35 years old. In the industrial period, technological revolution, people can live 70 years. So in the artificial intelligence period, people can live 120 years, I think. Now the problem comes, when people's lives are getting better, people don't want to have children. When grand-grandfather is there you don't wanna have children. At that time we are gonna have a lot of jobs with nobody wanna do it, so we need AI to take care of the old guys for sure. You will not be happy, or you will happy, because when your grand-grandfather says "Oh I need to work tomorrow" then that's a disaster.

So, I think we cannot predict the future but we should be ready that we are going to enter into the era that everyone can live 120 years, and we have new, more new problems that come up. So that's my view about jobs, don't worry about it, we will have jobs.

馬斯克：是的。今後人工智能會使得工作失去意義，可能最後的工作就是寫AI軟件，最終可能AI自己都會寫軟件了，所以我建議大家去學工程、物理或者做一些和人互動的工作。當然還有藝術。我們還要思考一下神經連接的問題，不然的話我們就要落後了。我們一定要儘快做這個工作，我們所剩的時間也不多了。

Elon: Yeah. I think, over time AI will make jobs kind of pointless, probably the last job that will remain will be writing AI software and then eventually the AI will just write its own software. So I dunno, I suppose I'd recommend studying engineering, physics, that kind of thing, or working on something where people just want to interact with other people. People enjoy, fundamentally, interacting with other people so if you're working on something that involves people or engineering, it's probably a good approach. Art, of course. Like I said, I think we're going to have to figure out this Neurolink situation otherwise we will be left behind. It's very important we do this quickly, I think time, we don't have much time.

If you think of like, technology and technology awareness, there's like, it's like, if there was like a topological mode of technology awareness, there's mostly flat with a few short buildings and then some very tall spires, very tall spires. And unless you're on that very tall spire, it's not obvious what the topology is.

馬雲：我從來不擔心自己解決不了的問題，我讓別人解決，如果沒有人解決就讓它去吧。

Jack: Yeah, I never worry about the things that I cannot solve. I let other people solve it. If nobody can solve it, just let it be. That's my life.

關鍵詞：教育

馬雲：我對教育很感興趣，講一下教育吧。“未來要我們掌握哪些知識或者技能，從而有助於我們獲得更多的優勢？對於年輕想要從事人工智能的年輕人你有什麼建議嗎？”

我認為在未來不會有人工智能的專業人士。人們經常擔心工作，我擔心的是教育。所有的教育體系給孩子教的東西，教的方式主要是為工業時代所設計的，我相信機器會更加聰明，會比人在未來聰明很多。人怎麼能夠做得更好，怎麼變得更智慧更聰明呢？我們應該改變教育方式，改變教的內容。

過去我們專注的都是記憶，但計算機可以比你記得更好，算得更快，你想要跑得更快，但機器可以跑得比你更快。人類要更有創意，更有建設性，怎麼教孩子有更多的創意、更有建設性呢？我覺得這是教育的關鍵。

我們可以花更多時間來訓練培訓孩子去學藝術，學畫畫，學跳舞，這些都是創意的事情。我們要理解一點，人從來沒有辦法制造一個人。計算機就是機器，機器就是一個玩具。我們要有信心，機器只有芯片，而我們有我們的心，我們的心是智慧的來源。所以接下來的10年、20年，各個國家、政府應該去改革教育體系來確保孩子能夠在未來找到工作，在今後每週只工作3天，每天工作4個小時，這是非常重要的。

Jack: Let's talk about education, I'm quite interested about the education. So, what knowledge or skills will be useful to master the future? Do you have any advice for young professionals who want to pursue a career in AI?

Young professionals. I don't think we will have professional of AI in the future. Well, I worry a lot about, people worry about jobs but I worry about education. All the education systems, the things we teach our kids, the way we teach our kids, are mainly designed for the industrial period. And I'm sure the machine will be much more clever than human beings in the future. How can human beings do better? Human beings should be smarter, human beings should be wiser. So, how can we be human beings to be wiser or smarter? I think that we should change the way of education, change the things.

Because in the past we focused a lot about remember things, computer can remember better than you can. Want to calculate it faster? Computer can calculate faster. We want to run faster? Computer can run much faster than you are. So if human beings can have confidence, by being more creative, more constructive, so how can we teach our kids to be more creative, constructive? And I think this is the key of the education.

And I want spending more time on training kids on arts, on painting, on singing, on dancing. You know, all these are the creative things that make people live like humans. Don't worry about machines. For sure we should understand one thing: That man can never make another man. Computer is a computer, computer is just a toy. Man cannot even make a mosquito so we should have confidence. Computer have chips, man have the heart. It's the heart where the wisdom comes from, so I think in the next ten or twenty years, human beings from every country, every government should focus on reform the education system, making sure our kids be able to find a jobs in the future. Being able to live the life that only working three days a week, four hours a day and that is very important. If we do not change the education system that we are in, we are all going to be in trouble. That's my view, and don't worry about it: we will change it.

馬斯克：是的。要儘可能多地多學一點，讓自己能夠更好地預測未來、創造未來。預測未來最好的方法就是去創造未來。我們要評估一下自己在學的東西，是不是能夠讓自己預測未來，讓自己減少錯誤？我們可以通過這個方式來思考教育。

說到神經連接，我們可以把任何東西進行上傳，任何技能都可以即刻上傳。現在的教育是帶寬很低非常慢的，講課是最糟糕的。預測未來時，我們要犯更少的錯也是很難的，並不一定99%是錯，但是我們經常錯得很多。但是我們還是要去嘗試，不嘗試不行，要去嘗試、去調整，根據之前預測的錯誤做調整。

Elon: I would say, try to learn as much as possible that allows you to predict the future, or make the future. As the saying goes: The best way to predict the future is to make it. And then assess whether what you're learning is enabling you to predict the future with less error, are you less wrong? We are always wrong, to a certain degree, but can you reduce the error on your future predictions? I think that's the way to look at education.

Of course, if it was both creative, create the future and predict the future. So that includes art and all those other things. But close the loop on being less wrong about the future, I would say that's the right way to think about education. I mean, down the road with Neurolink you could just upload any subject instantly, so it would be like the Matrix. You wanna fly a helicopter? No problem. Well, helicopters will fly themselves but, you know, if you wanted to do whatever, any given skill, you just upload it instantly. The way education works now, it's extremely low bandwidth, it's extremely slow. Lectures are the worst, really. Yeah. Try to predict the future with less error, this is very hard. As you were saying, I'm not sure it's 99.9% but it's not very good, generally, our prediction of the future, but I think often people don't try. The first thing is, try. If you don't try, hey, you know, you gotta try and then adjust based on the error of your predictions.

馬雲：是的，去嘗試很好，我們要永遠有信心在未來做嘗試。錯誤可以說是人類最好的資產、最好的財富，人們擔心人工智能災難的時候，我覺得這並不是災難或者人類犯的錯，我們要相信人類是能夠改善錯誤，改善自己的。這就需要教育。

今天在中國每年都有大量嬰兒出生，這還不夠，我們需要更多。地球上最早的資源並不是煤炭、石油、電力，而是人類的大腦，怎麼讓人類大腦更有創意、更有建設性呢？怎麼確保機器永遠是人類的玩具和工具，而不是控制我們呢？在我這一輩子當中尤其過去兩年，大家經常談人工智能，說人類會被機器控制，我從來不想這些問題，因為這是不可能的。因為人是不一樣的，機器是人類發明的。根據科學，人從來無法創造一個比自己更聰明的動物，在這裡有很多聰明人，但我們還是沒有辦法創造一個更聰明的人。

Jack: I think just to try is very good. We should always have the confidence to try the future, and I never worry about the errors and the mistakes. Errors are mistakes are the best assets of human lives, and humans, I think, people worry about the disasters that AI is going to bring, I think it's not the disasters, it's the mistakes that human beings make. And trust, human beings will be able to correct the mistakes and improve themselves. That, we need education, and this is what we think.

In China today, we have 1,800 new babies born every year, which is not enough. We need to have like much more than that, but I think the best resources of the human beings, or the best resources on the Earth, are not the coals, not the oil, not the electricity, it's the human brain. How can we make the human brain more creative, constructive? How can we make sure that the machines are always the toys and tools or humans, rather than control. So, I never in my life, and especially in the last two years when people talk about AI say human beings will be controlled by machines, I never think about it. I think it's impossible, right. It's impossible, because human beings, they are different. Machines, they are invented by human beings, and according to the science, humans can never create another animal that is smarter than humans, especially when you have so many smart people. It's impossible to make another smart people.

馬斯克：我非常不同意你的看法。

Elon: I very much disagree with that.

馬雲：這非常好。

Jack: Okay. That's good.

馬斯克：我們可以創造比我們更聰明的東西，他們並不一定要是人。最早的文明是非常原始的，當時沒有任何技術，只是跑來跑去，不要被別人吃掉，想要生存下來。現在我們有取暖，有很多的食物，這些都是新的東西。我們比過去聰明瞭很多很多，這會繼續下去，並不是最後的革命。像你說的，聰明人犯的最嚴重的錯誤就是自以為聰明。

Elon: I mean, the first thing we should assume is that we are bred out, and we can definitely make things smarter than ourselves. There didn't used to be humans, our earliest civilizations were very primitive. We didn't have any technology really, we were just like running around trying to not get eaten, or trying to just survive over winter. Now we have like heating and we grow food, this is all new stuff so, you know, things have obviously gotten way more smarter than the past. Way smarter. So, that's going to continue, we are not the last step in evolution so, the most important mistake I see smart people making is assuming that they are smart. They're not.

馬雲：你舉一個例子，哪個人類創造的東西比人更聰明？

Jack: Yeah so, give me example what animals or things that a human being made that is smarter than human beings.

馬斯克：計算機已經在很多方面比人更聰明瞭，我們的目標在變得更高。比如過去下棋是聰明人才會下的，現在你的手機就可以下棋打敗世界冠軍。圍棋以前大家覺得人比電腦強，但是李世石被阿爾法go 4：1打敗了，阿爾法 zero 100：0打敗了阿爾法go。人們和計算機下圍棋像你和宙斯鬥爭一樣沒有希望的，我們差太遠了。人類智力的追求在越來越少的方面比計算機好，每個方面以後會被計算機越來越多的超越，這是肯定的，或者文明能夠取勝，這是兩個可能。

Elon: Well, computers are already much smarter than people on so many dimensions, we just keep moving the goal posts. We used to think, like for example, being good at chess was an example of a smart human. And then Kasparov was crushed by Deep Blue in '97. That was a long time ago, 22 years. I mean, right now your cellphone could crush the world champion at chess, literally. Go! used to be thought of as something that humans were better at than computers, then Lee Sedol was beaten 4:1 by AlphaGo. Then there's Alpha Zero, Alpha Zero crushed AlphaGo 100:0. Now it's just pointless because it just keeps playing itself. Trying to play a computer at Go! is like trying to fight Zeus: it's not going to work, we are hopelessly inadequate. In terms of rendering, basically there's just a smaller and smaller corner of intellectual pursuits that humans are better than computers and every year that gets smaller and smaller and soon we will be far, far surpassed in every single way. Guaranteed. Or civilization will end, those are the two possibilities.

馬雲：計算機可能更聰明，但是人類要有更多的智慧。聰明是學術驅動的，但是智慧是經驗驅動的。計算機很聰明，但是是人類發明了計算機，我從來沒有看到計算機發明一個人。

第二點，說到圍棋和下棋。和計算機下棋這很愚蠢，像100年前人們創造了機器，人們說我可以比汽車跑得快這是不可能的，只有傻子才會去和汽車去賽跑。圍棋是為人類設計的，讓人和人下棋的。棋是讓人和人下的，為什麼人要和計算機下棋呢？我從來不下棋，不和計算機下圍棋。很高興看兩個計算機下棋，但是我對於和計算機下棋沒有興趣。有些人很悲傷說計算機比人聰明，計算機下棋下得更好，我覺得和計算機下棋很傻，不要這樣做，我們要做我們擅長的事情。

Jack: Okay, yeah. My view is that computer may be clever, but human beings are much smarter. Clever is very academic, is knowledge-driven. Smarter is experience-driven. Computer is clever, but it's human being, we invented the computer. I never see a computer invented a human being. This is my first point.

Second point is that about Go! and playing chess. It's stupid to compete with a computer and play Go! Just like a hundred years ago, when human being created cars, so human being said: I can run faster than a car. It's impossible, it's only stupid people to compete with a car to run faster. Go! is designed for human to play with human, right? The chess is designed for human to human. Why should a human to fight against a computer? So, I never played chess or Go! with computer. I'll be happy to see two computers fight each other, I'm not interested in play Go! with chess. So I told those guys they are very sad, oh computer will be smart with human beings because computer can play chess better. I think you are stupid to compete with that, don't do that! So, this, we always do things we are good at.

馬斯克：人比計算機哪些方面比較強，會不會發生這樣的情況？

Elon: Sure, okay well why don't you give me an example of something that humans are better than a computer at, and then let's see if that happens.

馬雲：計算機只是人類創造的聰明的工具之一。計算機是聰明的，但是人類今後會創造更多的工具，會比計算機聰明更多，這是我的看法。

Jack: Well, humans, computer is only one of the clever tools that human created, and computers are clever, but there will be more tools that human beings will create, much clever than computers. That's my view.

馬斯克：對於人工智能，我的看法是，說到底你可以推進人工智能來解決問題，讓人們有更多的自由度。有最多自由度的就是現實。比如下跳棋是很容易解決的，用傳統的軟件計算機就可以解決的，這別沒有什麼挑戰。可以說下跳棋有完整的解決方案，幾乎不可能贏，每一個套路都已經知道了。然後就有象棋，自由度比跳棋高很多，但是也是自由度數量級比較低的遊戲。之後到了圍棋，自由度比象棋高很多，所以我們不斷的在跳躍自由度，數量級在不斷的上升，智能的數量級也在不斷的上升，可以完全模擬人的各個方面。

有人說現在我們就活在一種模擬當中，有人開玩笑說，如果生活就是一種遊戲，那麼大家有什麼看法呢？我覺得我們的圖象很好，情節也非常複雜，但是要讓一個人重生獲得完全的意識可能還要20多年。你講的出生率我並不擔心，大多數人覺得人口太多了，但是這是一種過時的看法。假設人工智能能夠帶來一個美好的未來，世界在20年後面臨的最大問題就是人口的崩潰。20年後最大的問題就是人口的崩潰並不是人口的爆炸，我們可以很清楚的預見20年後人類的情況。人類重生要花20年。

Elon: Okay, well let me tell you my view on AI is essentially, you can view the advancement of AI as solving things with increasing degrees of freedom, so the thing with the most degrees of freedom is reality, but AI is steadily advanced, solving things that have more and more degrees of freedom, so obviously it's something like checkers, was very easy to solve. That we could solve with classical software, classical computing, not really all that challenging and in fact there is the complete solution for checkers, meaning it is literally every version of checkers is known. And then there's chess which is also, had many, many more degrees of freedom than checkers, many orders of magnitude more than checkers, but still, I would say a really low order of magnitude. Low degree of freedom game. Then there's Go! which had many orders of magnitude more degrees of freedom than chess, so it's really just stepping through orders of magnitude, of degrees of freedom. This is the way to, I think, view the advancement of intelligence. Really, you get to the point where you just completely simulate a person in every way possible, like many people simultaneously.

In fact, I mean obviously there's a strong argument we're in a simulation right now. Sort of reminds me of that joke of like, you know if life was a video game what would be the review, and it's like "Well the graphics are incredible, the plot is confusing, and the re-spawn takes a long time." You know, that's a video game. That's life, in a video game. Re-spawn takes 20 years, it takes 20-years to spawn a human being and have them be fully conscious. I'm worried about the birth rate, which you alluded to earlier. Most people think we have like too many people on the planet, but actually this is an outdated view. Assuming that AI is fine, that there's a benevolent future with AI, I think the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse. Collapse. I want to emphasize this. The biggest issue in 20 years will be population collapse. Not explosion, collapse. It's very easy to see what the world will look like in 20 years, because humans have a 20 year boot sequence, so like: Who was born last year? Okay, now you know what the world will look like in 20 years. It's that easy.

馬雲：我覺得這是很容易預測的，我同意人口的問題是一個巨大的挑戰。中國14億人聽起來很多，但是今後20年這會給中國帶來巨大的問題，人口會下降，人口下降的速度會增加。加速崩潰。

Jack: I absolutely agree with that the population problem is going to facing huge challenge. 1.4 billion people in China, it sounds a lot, but I think next 20 years will see this thing will bring big trouble to China, and the population decreasing of the whole, the speed of population decreasing is going to speed up. It could collapse.

馬斯克：有人反駁說會有移民，從哪裡移過來呢？還要去火星，火星也需要有人去住，現在那裡沒有人，現在只有一些機器人在那裡。

Elon: Accelerating collapse. The common rebuttal is, well what about immigration? From where? You know. Mars needs people, you know. There's zero people there right now, it's a machine planet - there's only robots there.

馬雲：這是我們需要特別注意的，我們需要更多時間有新的孩子出生。

關於另外一個問題，在我的公司，有秩序、有邏輯的事情，機器總是能夠做得很好，如果沒有秩序或者邏輯，人類可以做得很好。你愛某些人基本上沒有理由，沒有任何道理，但是如果恨一個人，當我想要在一些人身上做一些壞事情就有邏輯了，一旦有邏輯AI可以比你做得很好。

Jack: This is something that we should pay special attention, that's why the 80 million new babies born in China, only like 1% or something, we should spend more time treat life people.

But also, I think about the AI, there's another thing which Elon, I... in my company, in our company, AI, Alibaba Intelligence, we think, with things with order, with things with logic, machine can always do better, AI can do better. But things without order, without logic, human being can do better. For example, when you love someone there's no reason normally. I just love him, I just love her. I have no reason. But when I hate somebody, when I wanna do bad things on somebody, there's logic. When there's logic, AI can do better. What we do on our Ant Finance, we teach machine all the bad things that bad guys want to do. Machine can learn quickly and arrest all the bad guys we need to. But when you want to do good things, not necessary.

馬斯克：AI本來就是愛。

Elon: AI means love.

馬雲：你說得很對，AI世界當中，AI如果能夠帶來愛的話，以前如果你是一個成功的人士必須情商和智商都高，未來想要在世界上生存下來必須有LQ，就是愛的智商要高，不然在人工智能時代沒有辦法生存下來。

Jack: That's absolutely right, so that is why the world, if the AI can bring love, which I called it in the past, if you wanna be a successful person you have to be EQ and IQ, right? In the future, if you want to survive in this world, you have to be the LQ, the Q of love. That's important too, otherwise you cannot survive that.

馬斯克：我非常喜歡你的回答。

Elon: I agree that love is the answer of many songs about love.

關鍵詞：生命

馬雲：生命或者人類與機器，或者想要講講汽車自動駕駛，想要說哪個？

Jack: Well I've picked up the final one, another topic.

馬斯克：我選生命。

Elon: This feels like one of those steps in a video game where you've got to like pick a path, a choice. I choose life.

馬雲：在人工智能幫助下人類壽命會有多長，人工智能可以幫助環境可持續發展嗎？

Jack: Okay, life. So how much longer do you think people can live for with the help of AI. Can AI help with environmental sustainability? Can you...

馬斯克：人類可以解決環境可持續發展的問題，我認為這並不是容易的事情。但是我覺得這是一個完全可以實現的對未來的預言，我們必須採取大量行動，同時持續這樣的勢頭，實現環境可持續性。環境可持續發展方面中國是世界領導者，非常令人驚歎。世界上大概一半的電動車都是在中國製造的，這是過去幾年的數字。現在並不是已經可以驕傲自滿了，人類可以並且會解決可持續發展的問題。

如果我們能夠做神經連接的話，我相信年齡已經不太重要了，可以把狀態儲存下來，像你把一個遊戲保存下來一樣。我們可以把生物的衰老問題解決，如果要去改變DNA的話，就是一個時間的問題。人們會不會願意去改DNA，這是要思考的。很有可能人類會反響很好，如果真要延長壽命的話要去改變DNA，但不知道是不是應該去做這件事情。

Elon: I think, first of all humans will solve environmental sustainability. I do not mean to suggest complacency, or that we just take it easy, in fact this is a self-fulfilling or unfulfilling prophecy. We must take immediate and dramatic action, and continue the momentum towards environmental sustainability. And China is actually the world leader in this, in fact I'm not sure how well it is known outside of China just how much China is the world leader in environmental sustainability. It's extremely impressive, I mean I think half of all the electric cars in the world were made in China last year or something like that, so... you know, I don't mean to suggest complacency, but I do think humans can and will solve sustainability.

If we can do the neurolink, age will not matter that much. You should simply save your state, and restore your state, like a saved game, essentially. Something very close to that. I do think we can solve biological aging, if we really wanted to. You'd have to make DNA changes but it's, we're obviously just on a clock. All organisms are. You can take a fruit fly, for example, and you could give it, have it do daily yoga and have a very healthy diet and it's still going to only live for three weeks, maybe four weeks. So, environmental factors are relatively minor for extending life. You have to change the DNA, and so the question is: "Will people be okay with changing the DNA?" That's the thing about extending life. And probably people are a little bit reticent about that, but that's essentially the thing that needs to occur to extend life. You've got to stop the DNA clock somehow. I don't know if we should work on this or not. I think, frankly, I think it's probably a good thing that we do eventually die. There's a saying in physics, like, even physicists, which are generally quite objective, is like: "Old physicists don't change their mind, they just die." So, maybe it's good to have this life cycle.

馬雲：我覺得AI人工智能完全可以幫助我們實現環境可持續性，當人們對自己有更好了解的時候，人們會變得更加明智更加聰明。聰明的人知道想要什麼東西，以及如何實現。而真正智慧的人知道不想要的是什麼。當人類會使用人工智能時，可以更好的瞭解自己，我覺得也會有很多方法。人們可以住在一個健康的地球上，並且保護一個健康的地球。

為什麼我想要待在地球上，想要在地球上工作，想要做所有的事情幫助地球變得更好，如果到外太空聽上去很不錯。如果我們能夠把資源都花在地球上，比如從海洋當中取出垃圾，這比去外星更難，人工智能可以幫助我們實現這樣的目標解決問題。

第二，人類可以有更好的生活，生活得更長。我們需要的是活得更加健康，就是要更好的理解自己大部分的疾病是由什麼造成的，其實都是由我們行為造成的。我百分之百確定人們會活得更長，更加健康，但是並不一定會生活得更加快樂。如果你要快樂的話，我們要關注的是價值觀、我們的願景和我們的任務，同時要有一個夢想。人們非常喜歡技術，對技術有幻想，我覺得技術應該和夢想共生，並不是技術改變我們的世界，而是背後的夢想真正改變了我們的世界。

我希望我們能把這個世界變得更好，幫助74億人活得更好、更加健康，這就是世界的本質所在。我相信我們將會非常快樂的工作。我很喜歡特斯拉的產品，讓世界變得更加乾淨和清潔沒有噪聲，而且技術又非常好，非常高興你能把工廠設在中國，我們也需要做更多的事情改變我們的世界，改善我們的地球，保證人們關愛家人，關愛自己的健康，讓人們活得更加快樂。同時也要相信我們，相信人類，相信年輕一代。我們今天要採取負責任的態度，但是我們不能夠為未來找到所有解決方案，人類犯錯也是一件好事。人類如果能夠從錯誤當中學習也是一件好事，人類最後的死亡和消亡也是一件好事。

Jack: Well, I think AI can definitely help the environmental sustainability. And when human beings know themselves better, human beings will be smarter and will be wiser. The difference between collective people and smart people, or wise people, smart people know what you want, and how you can get it. Wise people know what he doesn't want, so when human beings use an artificial intelligence, they will understand themselves better and I think there will be millions of ways people will live in a healthy earth and protect a health earth.

The reason why I wanna stay in this earth, I wanna work on this earth, I wanna do anything I can to help this earth do better... going to space is great, but if we can spend our resources just to focus on helping pick up the garbage from the oceans, that thing is more difficult than going to Mars. But AI can help us achieve that, and solve the problems.

And second, human beings can live better, can live longer, but what we need is not only live longer, we want to live healthier. How can we live healthier? It's to understand ourselves better. Most of the diseases are caused by our behavior, so I think I'm 100% sure people will live longer, people will live healthier, but may not necessarily live happier. If you want to be happier, human beings should focus on value, vision, mission, and always have the dreams. And I don't want people left to college and put their dreams on the technology. I think the technology should be with dreams, it's not technology that will change the world, it's the dreams behind the technology that change the world.

So my hope is that anything we can do to improve this world, to help the 7.4 billion people live better and live healthier, this is all about our world and I think we will be working very happily, because I love your product Tesla, making the world cleaner and no noise. I'm happy you have the factory in China, and I think we need to do more things to improve this Earth, improve this world and make sure people are happier and care more about the family, people care about their health, that's all we should do and trust us. Trust the human beings, and trust young people. Let's take responsibility for today, lets not take away all the solutions for tomorrow. It's great that human beings make mistakes, it's great that human beings learn from mistakes, it's great to die.

馬斯克：我覺得你說的是對的，我們要為意識長久的存在而奮鬥。

Elon: Fight for the light of consciousness.

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