IT IS not a number to tweet about. President Donald Trump plans to plough $1trn of spending into America’s crumbling infrastructure. And a dearth of capital is not a problem: investors are keen on such assets. But investment seems to be falling.
這不是推特上發佈數字。美國總統唐納德·特朗普計劃下撥一萬億美元給美國搖搖欲墜的基礎建設行業。缺乏資金並不是問題：投資者熱衷於此類資產。不完，投資似乎會減少。
Government infrastructure spending in the second quarter fell to 1.4% of GDP, the lowest share on record (see chart). According to Thomson Reuters, investment by American municipalities in the first seven months of this year, at $50.7bn, was nearly 20% below the same period in 2016. Private-sector infrastructure funds show a similar trend, according to Preqin, another data provider: deal volume in the first half of 2017 fell by 7.5%, year on year, to $36.6bn; the number of deals fell by a quarter.
2017年，美國政府基礎設施開支下跌至國內生產總值的1.4%，創下了歷史最低佔比。據湯森路透消息，2017年前七個月，美國的市政府投資為507億美元，幾乎比2016年同季度少了20%。據另一數據機構普瑞奇的消息，私營基礎設施資金也有相似走勢：2017年上半年度成交量降至366億美元，環比下跌7.5%。這個數字減少了四分之一。
Not long ago optimists were expecting an infrastructure-spending boom. In May Blackstone, a private-equity firm, announced with much fanfare a new $40bn fund for American infrastructure, with a $20bn investment from one of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth funds.
不久之前，樂觀人士預期基礎設施的投入會大大增加。在五月，私募機構黑石高調宣佈將對美國基礎設施投資400億美元，其中有200億美元來自於沙特阿拉伯主權財富基金。
Yet the obstacles to investment in American infrastructure, particularly for private capital, remain daunting. Planning procedures are arduous. Many decisions are taken at state or local level by transport agencies that remain, in one investor’s words, “great bastions of political patronage”. Private ownership of certain types of infrastructure still encounters resistance. Many European airports are now private, for example, whereas American ones are public. So American private-sector investment hovers at a meagre $100bn or so a year, around four-fifths of it in energy.
然而，美國基礎設施投資的障礙依舊令人氣餒，對私人資本來說尤其如此。規劃流程艱難重重。規劃的決策是由各州或地方的交通管理機構做出的，而這些機構，用一位投資者的話說便是“政治贊助的大堡壘”。某一些類別的基礎設施屬於私人所有，卻面臨著阻力。舉例來說，現在歐洲許多機場是私營的，然而在美國都是上市公司。因此，一年美國民營領域的投資大概在1000億美元附近徘徊，只有在能源方面投資的五分之四。
The recent downward trend in both public and private investment suggests the administration’s lack of action has had an additional cooling effect. Anton Pil of J.P. Morgan points out that most large infrastructure projects in America need at least some federal funding to succeed. Unless the federal government leads the way, there is unlikely to be much new activity.
近期美國政府與私人投資均呈下滑的趨勢，表明美國政府行動不足，起來了更多的冷卻作用。摩通大根的安頓·皮爾指出，美國大部分大型基礎設施工程要圓滿完成至少需要有一些聯邦政府資金的投入。除非聯邦政府牽頭，否則不可能有大量新投資行為。
Even if the administration does set an example, a further difficulty is the shortage of investable projects, particularly big-ticket ones. Mr Pil’s team has been making deals as small as $100m, for instance in small solar farms; large-deal opportunities remain rare, he says. It is easier, it seems, to raise money to invest in infrastructure than to spend it.
即使美國政府開了新例，接下來的困難是可投資工程不足，尤其是高投入工程。皮爾的團隊一直在小型太陽能農場之類做些價值1000萬級別的小型項目。他表示，大型項目的機會還是很少。籌集資金投資基礎設施比消費資金看起來簡單很多。
編譯：Alice小蒙噠
編輯：翻吧君