經濟學人|法國大選:馬克龍之危

法國 政治 歐洲 美國 魔力學院 2017-06-09

經濟學人|法國大選:馬克龍之危

Emmanuel Macron,法國新任總統,年僅39歲。相較於政治老手Marine Le Pen,他本身就是此次大選跑出的一批黑馬。對很多法國人來說,沒有執政經驗的他並不是總統候選人的首選,只是相對Le Pen來說,他的“危險性”較小。而雖然Le Pen落選,其極右主張和極右思想在法國的影響力依然龐大。這篇文章主要講述了Marine Le Pen留下的政治影響以及其與Markon之間的差異。有分析指出,5年或者10年後,法國極右政黨仍有可能登上政治舞臺。

France’s presidential election:

The rage against Macron

法國總統競選:針對馬克龍的怒氣

Even if Marine Le Pen is defeated,

she will have left a deep mark on French politics

即使勒龐被打敗,

她也會對法國的政治留下深刻的印記

AS FAMILY outings go, it was unorthodox. No fewer than 20 members of all ages travelled from Normandy to a soulless exhibition hall 20km (12 miles) north of Paris, to watch the nationalist Marine Le Pen take the stage for her last big campaign rally. The youngest in the troop was seven; there were several teenaged girls with pony-tails. But the family seemed thrilled. “For 30 years, politicians have ruined this country,” said Bernard, an uncle in the clan, who works in funeral insurance: “They tell us that we’re racist, but that’s nonsense. She’s the one who’s got concrete ideas to get us out of this chaos.

rage:暴行、憤怒

family outings:家庭活動

unorthodox [ʌnˈɔ:rθədɑ:ks]:非正統的; 異端的; 異教的; 左的。

[例句]She spent an unorthodox girlhood travelling with her father throughout Europe.

她童年的經歷不同尋常,其間她和父親遊遍了歐洲。

Normandy[ˈnɔrməndi]:

n.諾曼底(法國西北部一地區,北臨英吉利海峽)

take the stage:登臺演出

pony-tail:馬尾辮

funeral [ˈfjunərəl]:葬禮,喪禮

get us out of this chaos:chaos,混亂,這裡表示“她能帶我們擺脫這些水深火熱”。

作為家庭出遊活動,以下的情景真是匪夷所思了:20多個各年齡階段的人,從諾曼底來到一個沒有生氣的展覽廳(展覽廳位於巴黎的北部12英里處),來觀看勒龐的最後一次大型競選集會。這家人裡面最小的是7歲,還有幾個綁著馬尾辮的少女。但是一家人都很興奮,其中一位在喪葬保險工作的叫伯納德的叔叔說:30年來,政治家已經毀了這個國家,他們說我們是種族主義者,但那都是胡扯。勒龐是一個擁有堅定信念的人,她能帶我們擺脫這些水深火熱。

In an echo of a campaign line used by François Hollande, the Socialist president, in 2012, Ms Le Pen told flag-waving supporters in Villepinte: “Today, the enemy of the French people is still the world of finance, but this time he has a name, he has a face, he has a party, he is presenting his candidacy and everyone dreams of him being elected: he is called Emmanuel Macron.”

echo [ˈekoʊ]:回聲,共鳴

campaign[kæmˈpen]:運動; 戰役; 競選運動

candidacy[ˈkændɪdəsi]:候選人資格; 候選人的地位;

和2012年一個社會主義總統弗朗索瓦·奧朗德(前任法國總統)的競選臺詞相呼應,勒龐女士在展覽廳告訴揮著旗子的支持者們:法國人民的敵人依然是金融世界,但是這一次,他有了一個名字,他還有自己的長相,他有自己的政黨,他正在競選總統,而且所有人都希望他當選,他的名字是:埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍。

It is a message that chimes with a big chunk of the electorate in a fractured country. Big cities and college-educated voters favour Mr Macron and his pro-European, business-friendly politics, while struggling smaller towns and rural parts lean to the protectionist, anti-immigration Eurosceptism of Ms Le Pen. Even some of those who recoil at her xenophobia turn out to loathe the world of finance even more. “Neither banker, nor racist” read a banner at a protest rally in Paris. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a Communist-backed candidate who came a close fourth, refused to call for a vote for

Mr Macron against Ms Le Pen. Fully 65% of his supporters said that they would abstain or spoil their ballot papers.

chimes:敲出和諧的樂聲( chime的第三人稱單數 ); 報(時); 插嘴; (以…) 打斷談話;

[例句]The ceremony started as the chimes of midnight struck.

子夜鐘聲響起的時候,儀式開始了。

Chunk [tʃʌŋk]:厚厚的一塊; (某物) 相當大的數量或部分; 強壯、結實的馬;

[例句]They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.

他們必須當心大塊浮冰。

euroscepticism:(合成詞)歐洲懷疑主義; 主義; 疑歐主義; 歐洲懷疑論;

recoil:反衝;退縮;畏縮;對…作出厭惡(或恐懼)的反應

xenophobia [ˌzenəˈfoʊbiə]:對外國人的憎惡[恐懼]。

xeno指外邊,異物,phobia是一個後綴,意為恐怖症,比如Mondayphobia週一恐懼症;Socialphobia社交恐懼症;Dromophobia橫越街道恐懼症。

loathe[loʊð]:vt.憎恨,厭惡(某人、某事物); [口語中]極不喜歡(某事物);

[例句]The two men loathe each other

兩個男人互相看不順眼。

abstain [æbˈsten, əb-]:棄權; 避免

spoil:破壞,溺愛。這裡和abstain一起,都表示棄權。

這一說法和國家內部分裂的大量選民吻合。大城市和大學教育背景的選民都傾向於支持馬卡龍和他的親歐、商業友好的政治理念,而生活艱難的小鎮和農村地區的人們傾向於支持保護主義和反對移民的歐洲懷疑論者勒龐。甚至那些害怕勒龐的仇外心理的人,其實比勒龐更加厭惡金融世界。在巴黎的抗議集會上,有一個條幅這麼寫到“既不要銀行家,也不要種族主義者”。共和黨推舉的候選人梅朗鬆,在候選人支持率中排名第四,拒絕組織票選支持馬克龍反對勒龐(他本可以為馬克龍拉選票,讓他的支持者改投馬克龍)。因而65%的他的支持者都表示要棄選。

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 讓·呂克·梅朗鬆

經濟學人|法國大選:馬克龍之危

梅朗鬆今年64歲,於2016年2月10日宣佈參加大選。宣佈此事的同時還建立了自己的政治運動陣營—“不屈的法國”。他曾參與2012年總統選舉,獲得了11.1%的選票。

他是著名的左派“挑釁者”,在2008年法國抵制北京奧運會期間,在博客上發表《我反對抵制奧運和反華宣傳》一文,文中這樣表達了他的觀點:北京奧運就不應該抵制、支持達賴無異於支持僧侶神權體制。

可見是一位非常有主見有魄力的政治人物。

Ms Le Pen has made some gains. She secured the first national alliance in the 45-year history of her party, the National Front (FN), hooking up with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, a right-wing Eurosceptic who scored nearly 5% of the vote in the first round. Ms Le Pen, who won 21%, has also tried to broaden her base by reaching out to the mainstream right (with its older voters) and the far left (with its younger ones). She lifted a stirring passage on regional identity from a speech by François Fillon, the defeated centre-right candidate, which her aides insisted was a “wink” at his electorate. Her team made an appeal on social media to Mr Mélenchon’s “unsubmissive” voters too, pointing to their shared positions such as distrust of NATO and desire for retirement at the age of 60.

alliance:(國家或政黨的)聯盟,同盟

secure: (經過努力)獲得,爭取到

hook up:搭檔,聯手

right-wing:右翼

Eurosceptic:歐洲統一懷疑論者

mainstream:主流

far left:極左

stirring:激動人心的,鼓舞的

aides:(尤指在政府或軍隊中身居要職者的)助手,副手

electorate:(一國或一地區的)全體選民

unsubmissive:不服從的; 不順從的; 不柔順的; 堅強不屈的

NATO:the North Atlantic Treaty Organization北大西洋公約組織

勒龐有一些收穫。在其所屬政黨國民陣線(FN)的45年曆史中,瑪麗娜勒龐守住了第一國民聯盟,並與尼古拉斯·杜邦埃尼昂聯盟,後者是一個右翼的歐洲懷疑論者,在第一輪取得了近5%的選票。勒龐贏得了21%的選票,她還試圖擴大自己的政治基礎,通過拉攏主流的右派(年老的選民)和極左(年輕的選民)。她從弗朗索瓦·菲永(落敗的中右翼候選人)的一篇演講裡搬用了一段關於區域認同的話,對此她的助手堅持稱這是勒龐向菲永的選民的一次“眨眼”示意。她的團隊也在主流媒體上向仍支持梅朗鬆的不服從的選民進行呼籲,指出他們的共同立場,例如不信任北約和希望在60歲時退休。

François Fillon 弗朗索瓦·菲永

經濟學人|法國大選:馬克龍之危

法國政治家,兩任法國總理。(注意法國總理與總統不同。)

在2017年的法國大選中,他代表傳統右翼共和黨參選,在第一輪投票中得到了20%的選票。因被懷疑用公款僱傭妻子兒女而後者不幹活拿空餉而被調查,此事也重創了他的選情。

菲永在法國議會上稱:“我們需要中國,世界也要靠中國走出經濟衰退。”菲永還強調,西藏是中國領土的一部分。

Perhaps most striking, Ms Le Pen softened her position on the euro. Her vow to quit the single currency has long divided the FN: those around Florian Philippot, her lieutenant, consider it a centrepiece; those close to Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, her niece and an FN deputy, see it as a distraction. But it has turned into a liability for her runoff campaign. Older voters in particular worry that a currency devaluation could slash their pensions and savings. So Ms Le Pen has fudged the issue, with a muddled plan for parallel currencies instead. At a FN souvenir stand in Villepinte, offering such delights as pendants and earrings featuring Ms Le Pen’s blue-rose emblem, Anne Claire, an off-duty police official, agrees: “The euro isn’t what matters; Marine is about defending the values of France.”

vow:起誓

Lieutenant:助理;(尤指)副職

centrepiece:最好(或最有趣)的部分;精華

niece:侄女

deputy:代表,副手,代理人

liability:責任,負債

runoff:(得票相同時的)決勝投票,決勝選舉

slash:大幅削減

pensions:退休金,養老金

fudge:捏造; 迴避;逃避責任; 欺騙

[例句]Both have fudged their calculations and avoided specifics.

兩人都對自己的計算結果含糊其詞,避免提到具體數字。

muddled:混亂的;糊塗的

souvenir:紀念品; 禮物

Villepinte:維勒班特

delight:快樂,高興; 使人高興的東西或人

[例句]Throughout the house, the views are a constant source of surprise and delight

從房子各處看到的景色不斷給人以驚奇和欣喜。

pendant:(裝在項鍊等上的) 垂飾,墜兒

[例句]This jade pendant is our family heirloom.

這塊玉佩是咱們家的傳家寶。

emblem:紋章,徽章; 標記,典型; 〈古〉寓意畫

最令人震驚的是,她甚至軟化了自己在歐元問題上的立場。勒龐退出單一歐元區的誓言曾導致國民陣線分為兩派,一派以副主席弗洛裡安·菲利伯特為首,視該想法為競選核心;另外一派,以她侄女也是國民陣線代表之一的瑪麗昂·勒龐為首,將這一觀點視為無關輕重的事。但在決勝選舉中,這件事就成了她的責任、老年選民尤其擔心貨幣貶值會使養老金和儲蓄縮水。於是勒龐就編造了一個議案:用一個模糊的平行貨幣計劃替代退出單一歐元區。維勒班特的一個國家陣線黨的紀念品站提供勒龐女士的藍玫瑰徽章吊墜和耳環這樣讓人喜歡的東西。該站的一名休班警察安妮·克萊爾表示:“歐元問題不重要,瑪麗蓮是為了捍衛法國的利益。”

Nonetheless, it will be extremely difficult for Ms Le Pen to make up the gap between her and Mr Macron in the remaining days. No poll has put her remotely close to winning a majority. She gets over 50% in only one region, Provence-AlpesCôte d’Azur, the FN’s southern stronghold. In Brittany and greater Paris, her score drops to 31%. It would take a historic upset at this point for her to keep Mr Macron from the presidency. A loss for Ms Le Pen would be a symbolic defeat of the forces of nationalism and populism that have gained ground in parts of Europe. It could also put internal pressure on her leadership. “If she gets much less than 40%, the party will consider it a disappointment,” says Cas Mudde, a scholar of extremism.

Nonetheless:雖然如此,但是

make up the gap:彌補差距,填補缺口

stronghold:據點; 要塞; 根據地

[例句]The westernmost part of north Wales is a stronghold of Welsh-speakers

北威爾士最西部是說威爾士語人的聚居區。

Brittany:布列塔尼(法國西部地區)

greater Paris:大巴黎地區。法國地區名。法國的一個行政區域,12012平方公里,人口一千一百萬。位於巴黎盆地中部。該區域以巴黎為中心,因此俗稱為大巴黎地區。

presidency:總統職位

symbolic:象徵性的

nationalism:民族主義

populism:平民主義,平民論,民粹主義

[例句]Explores and assesses Latin America's political shift to new populism and what is means for the United States.

探究和評估拉丁美洲新民粹主義的政治轉變,以及對於美國的含義。

儘管如此,勒龐想要在接下來的日子裡補上她和馬克龍的差距還是非常困難(本文寫在最終大選前,此時馬克龍的支持率已大幅領先)。沒有一項民意調查使她接近贏得多數票。她只在一個地區得到超過半數的選票——國民戰線在南方的根據地普羅旺斯省。在布列塔尼和大巴黎地區,她的支持率下降到31%。以這種分數,除非出現歷史性的意外騷動,她幾乎無法阻止馬克龍當選成總統了。勒龐的損失將會象徵民族主義和民粹主義的失敗,後者已經在歐洲取得一定地位。這也會給她的黨派增添內部壓力。一個極端主義的學者卡茨·穆德說,“如果她的得票低於40%,她的隊伍就會視之為一次挫敗”。

Yet it would be a mistake all the same to understate Ms Le Pen’s achievement. With a first-round score of 7.7m votes, she has already set a historic record for the FN. In 2002, when her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, also made it into the presidential run-off, there were demonstrations across the country and his opponent, Jacques Chirac, swept up 82% of the vote. This time, the streets have been mostly quiet, and she looks set to double his score. Mr Macron may well be safely elected on May 7th. But he will inherit a deeply divided country.

understate:不充分如實地陳述;對…輕描淡寫;打折扣地說

all the same:儘管如此,仍然

ential:總統[總裁,議長,董事長,校長等](職務)的; 統轄的,支配的,監督的,指揮的; 總統制的; 有總統氣派的;

[例句]There are several presidential candidates.

有數位總統候選人。

demonstration:示範,證明,示威遊行

swept:掃( sweep的過去式和過去分詞 ); 掃視

inherit:(從前人、前任等)接過,得到

然而如果低估勒龐的成就,也是錯的。第一輪獲得770萬的選票,她已經創下了國民陣線的歷史記錄。2002年,當她的父親,讓-瑪麗·勒龐,也曾進參加選舉,當時全國各地都有他和競爭者(雅克·希拉剋,橫掃了82%的選票)的遊行。此時,街上大多保持安靜,她卻已經確保了比當年父親多一倍的支持率。5月7日馬克龍應該會順利當選,但是他將接手一個深度分裂的國家。

這篇文章的評價比較中肯,預測也很準確。馬克龍雖然不負眾望地當選了,但這次大選最終投票率只有74.92%,在法國曆史上是最低的一回。勒龐拿到的33.94%已經算一個不錯的成績,相較於她父親當年的表現。

而法國各黨派間的分裂也越來越大。這次大選也讓歐盟心驚膽戰,作為歐盟主力的法國的留下終於讓歐洲大佬們長舒口氣,但9月份德國大選又是危機四伏。

歐盟將何去何從?歐洲究竟會繼續擰成一股繩還是各自分開爭霸?我們拭目以待。

經濟學人|法國大選:馬克龍之危

英文原文:

http://www.economist.com/news

講解:霞姐 / Tiassa / Angel

編排 / 校對:Angel

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